July 6, 2021 at 7:49 am #13117mkayler1670Participant
Hi there – will the 70.3 pace/power plan get me to the finish under 7 hours?
This will be my first half Ironman (North Carolina) so I’d like to finish strong under 7.
Swim pace is around 1:35/1:40.
Bike is around 17-18 MPH on average.
Run is 10-11 minutes/mile.
The math on pacing checks out, but I wanted to make sure I had the right plan to finish at my target time instead of just finish.July 6, 2021 at 8:18 am #13118winoriaModerator
I actually have a similar question. I just finished the 70.3 level 3 plan and need to switch to level 2 because my business travel picks up and I have less time for triathlon training 🙁
My race on June 27th made me come in at a 2h28min bike split (I had a flat that cost me a few mins) averaging 22.7 mph followed by a half marathon of 1h39min which mean an average pace of 7:33min/mile. Total incl. transition: 4h10min. No swim due to severe weather.
Now, if I would have swam on that day, I guess it would have been a total time of under 5 hours for sure, maybe in the 4:50-4:55 region.
Doing Level 2 instead of Level 3, how realistic is a 4h 45min for a 70.3? Would that be a stretch?
@mkayler1670: I think you will have no problem to hit your goal time and would actually think you could go for Level 1 or even Level 0 – but I’m sure David knows better.
winoriaJuly 6, 2021 at 8:22 am #13119FastmazorParticipant
From a fellow athlete, you sound like you are well positioned for under 7 and probably faster. Every course is different, but from what I can tell the NC bike is pretty flat, and that will be the biggest predictor of your finish time. As long as you can stay calm in the swim and steady on the run, you look to be in great shape! But my best advice is not to be so fixated on the time. Conditions drive everything on race day and affect everyone and something will not go in your favor so be mentally prepared for the unexpected. I have raced the same course at the same fitness level multiple years in a row with dramatically different times.July 6, 2021 at 10:06 am #13120David WardenKeymaster
@fastmazor and @winoria I really appreciate your input. I hate to even comment, as I don’t want to appear like I have to “bless” every answer and these answers are perfect, but since winoria asked a second question, I’ll chime in.
@mkayler1670 the Level 0 plan will get a male under 40 with under 20% body fat who adheres to the plan to under 7 hours on a “typical” 70.3 course and conditions. Like fastmazor says, there is a lot of variability based on the course. The Level 1 plan will get that same male athlete under 7 hours on almost any given course, so the Level 1 is your insurance.
@winoria the Level 2 plan is cutting it close for a 4:45. On a perfect day, an experienced athlete like you *might* be able to do it. Under 5? For sure with Level 2 for you, but 4:45 would require just a little but of luck as well.
DavidJuly 6, 2021 at 10:29 am #13121mkayler1670Participant
Thank you all! This is super helpful. Just wanted to make sure I came in at goal since I’m obviously not the fastest on the bike or run 🙂
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